Can Italy Bounce Back? Analyzing Their Chances For The 2026 World Cup After Missing The 2018 And 2022 Tournaments.

For a nation that has won four World Cups, Italy’s recent absence from the tournament has been nothing short of shocking. After failing to qualify for both the 2018 and 2022 editions, the Azzurri are desperate to reclaim their place among football’s elite.

With the 2026 World Cup expanding to 48 teams, Italy’s path to qualification should, in theory, be easier. But can they finally return to the biggest stage? And if they do, do they have the squad to compete for glory?

Chapter 1: How Did Italy Miss Two Straight World Cups?

2018: The Unthinkable Collapse Against Sweden

Italy’s failure to qualify for Russia 2018 was a national embarrassment. A 0-1 aggregate loss to Sweden in the playoffs—their first World Cup absence since 1958—marked the lowest point in decades.

🔴 Key Factors:

• Aging Squad: Buffon, Barzagli, Chiellini, and De Rossi were past their prime.
• Lack of Creativity: No true playmaker emerged after Pirlo’s retirement.
• Managerial Chaos: Gian Piero Ventura’s outdated tactics were heavily criticized.

2022: Another Playoff Disaster vs. North Macedonia

Four years later, Italy suffered another humiliation, losing 0-1 to North Macedonia in the playoff semifinal.

🔴 Key Factors:

• Euro 2020 Hangover: After winning the Euros, complacency set in.
• Struggles in Front of Goal: Jorginho’s missed penalties in qualifying proved costly.
• Injuries to Key Players: Spinazzola and Chiesa were sidelined.

Chapter 2: The Road to Redemption – Italy’s Current Squad

The New Generation Emerging

Gone are the days of relying on veterans. Italy is now building around a young, dynamic core:

⭐ Federico Chiesa (27) – The heartbeat of the attack.

⭐ Nicolò Barella (28) – A complete midfielder.

⭐ Gianluigi Donnarumma (26) – Still one of the world’s best goalkeepers.

⭐ Davide Frattesi (25) – A goalscoring midfielder with energy.

The Next Wave of Talent

Several rising stars could be key in 2026:

• Wilfried Gnonto (21) – Electric winger with explosive pace.
• Giorgio Scalvini (21) – A future defensive leader.
• Nicolò Fagioli (24) – Creative midfielder with vision.

Chapter 3: Spalletti’s Tactical Revolution

Since replacing Roberto Mancini, Luciano Spalletti has implemented a more attacking, possession-based system, moving away from Italy’s traditionally defensive style.    

Key Changes:

✅ High Pressing – More aggressive without the ball.

✅ Fluid Front Three – Chiesa, Retegui, and Zaniolo interchanging roles.

✅ Full-Backs as Playmakers – Di Lorenzo and Dimarco pushing forward.

Potential Weaknesses:

❌ Defensive Fragility – No longer the rock-solid backline of old.

❌ Overreliance on Chiesa – If he’s injured, creativity suffers.

Chapter 4: 2026 World Cup – Can Italy Finally Return?

Easier Qualification (But Not Guaranteed)

With 48 teams in 2026, UEFA gets 16 spots (up from 13). Italy should qualify, but recent history shows nothing is certain.

Group Stage Expectations

If they qualify, Italy would likely be a Pot 2 team, meaning a tough group draw. Their tournament experience (when they get there) could be crucial.

Knockout Stage Potential

• Quarter-Finals? A realistic target if they avoid early mistakes.
• Dark Horse for the Title? If Spalletti gets the tactics right, they could surprise.

Chapter 5: The Biggest Threats to Italy’s Hopes

1. France – Stacked with world-class talent.

2. England – Young, hungry, and improving.

3. Spain – Possession masters with elite midfielders.

4. Germany – Always a threat in major tournaments.

Italy must avoid mental lapses and find consistency to compete with these giants.

Conclusion: Will 2026 Be Italy’s Redemption Story?

Italy has the talent, manager, and motivation to return to the World Cup in 2026. However, they must:

✔ Avoid complacency in qualifying.

✔ Stay injury-free to key players.

✔ Adapt Spalletti’s tactics effectively.

If they do, the Azzurri could not only return to the World Cup but also make a deep run.

~~~ By Dribble Diaries